One way to reduce inequality and poverty is to promote tax justice. In 2021, the government of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, implemented a program (the Devolve-ICMS Program) that refunds consumption tax to low-income citizens (cashback). This study aims to evaluate the impacts of this Program using a differences-in-differences model and having, as response variables, the monthly sum of electronic invoices issued to the Program’s beneficiaries, as well as their value. The database used includes all invoices issued to the targe population during the 12 months before the Program’s implementation and the 14 months after its implementation, resulting in 7.7 million records. To receive the tax refund, the eligible population must pick up a Citizen Card, made available by the state government, which was done by a significant part of this population.
Tonetto, J. L., Fochezatto, A., & da Silva, G. P. (2023). Refund of Consumption Tax to Low-Income People: Impact Assessment Using Difference-in-Differences. Economies, 11(6), 153. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060153
The behavior of the treatment and control groups before and after the implementation of the Devolve-ICMS Program.
Fiscal pressure by minimum wage brackets before and after the Devolve-ICMS Program.
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Tonetto, J. L., Fochezatto, A., Pique, J. M., & Rapetti, C. (2025). Instant lottery innovation, tax compliance and herd effects, an impact assessment in Brazil. Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 96, 609–633. https://doi.org/10.1111/apce.70003.
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Tax Evasion and Company Survival: A Brazilian Case Study. Economies, 12(11), 286. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12110286
Tonetto, J. L., Fochezatto, A. & Pique, J. M. (2024). Monetary incentives to improve tax compliance: A Brazilian case study. Development Policy Review, 42, e12770. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12770
Tonetto, J. L., Fochezatto, A., & Pique, J. M. (2023). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Use of the Menor Preço Brasil Application. Administrative Sciences, 13(11), 229. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci13110229
Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 22% of Brazil’s losses from extreme events, mainly droughts and floods. The state had the second-worst economic performance in the country between 2000 and 2022. This study quantifies the impacts of major events such as droughts, floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic on economic sectors. Three methods were applied: structural breaks, recovery time, and sector-specific loss estimates. The analysis covers 15,365,123 observations of monthly invoice values from January 2017 to April 2025, involving 357,001 companies paying value-added tax on consumption. The results indicate that negative structural breaks occurred in a few sectors, which account for 5% of the state’s economy. The recovery time followed a similar trajectory between droughts and COVID-19. On average, sectors took 12 months to recover from COVID-19, compared with about 6 months for natural hazards. The sectors most impacted were travel, artistic activities, machinery and equipment industry, accommodation, and domestic services. Aggregated loss estimates were highest during the COVID-19 pandemic (−8%), followed by floods (−1%) and droughts (0%). The results indicate remarkable overall short-run economic resilience. Furthermore, sectors such as information technology, consulting, business services, and healthcare performed exceptionally well.
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., & Rapetti, C. (2025). Multiple Hazards and Economic Resilience: Sectoral Impacts and Post-Disaster Recovery in a High-Risk Brazilian State. Sustainability, 17(17), 7711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177711
Map of percentage of total disaster losses by state 2000–2024.
Performance of selected sectors in RS/Brazil. (2020-Covid-19; 2023-Drought; Floods-2024)
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Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Rapetti, C., & Fochezatto, A. (2025). Municipal Fiscal Sustainability in the Face of Climate Disasters: An Analysis of the 2024 Floods in Southern Brazil. Sustainability, 17(5), 1827. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17051827
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Economic Impact of Droughts in Southern Brazil, a Duration Analysis. Climate, 12(11), 186. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110186
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Survival Analysis of Small Business during COVID-19 Pandemic, a Brazilian Case Study. Economies, 12(7), 184. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070184
Tonetto, J. L., Fochezatto, A., & Pique, J. M. (2023). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Use of the Menor Preço Brasil Application. Administrative Sciences, 13(11), 229. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci13110229
The impact of COVID-19 on the economy was devastating. Small businesses typically have few resources to fight against such adversity. Many businesses remained closed for some time during the pandemic period, resulting in significant consequences for people in terms of jobs, income and life. The objective of this research is to identify the factors that contributed to increasing company failures during the pandemic. Furthermore, this study aims to verify whether the size of the companies, the sectors of economic activity in which they operate and their geographic location influence enterprise failure. This article analyzes the survival of 8931 small businesses from 2017 to 2023, in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study applied a survival analysis using the Kaplan–Meier procedure, complemented with the Cox procedure, to determine the effects of the size of companies, sector activity and location on the survival time. The results indicate that survival is much higher in small companies with large revenues that are located in the Campaign and West Frontier regions, as well as in the Northeast, North, Production, South, Taquari, and Rio Pardo Valleys regions, whereas the survival rates were extremely lower in the commercial sector and in financial intermediation activities. In the second analysis restricted to the commerce sector, the data highlighted the retail activities, accommodation and food activities sectors as the most affected in terms of overall survival. The results indicated that the survival of small business remained relatively strong during the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling the pertinent support from the government. The smallest business with revenues under USD 15,576 (BRL 81,000) per year were the most affected, with only 39% survival after 7 years. Some activities and some regions suffered more than others, emphasizing the need for special attention from authorities in future catastrophes.
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Survival Analysis of Small Business during COVID-19 Pandemic, a Brazilian Case Study. Economies, 12(7), 184. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070184
Kaplan–Meier survival curve, by size of small business in RS, 2017–2023. Note: Size S1 small businesses with yearly revenues up to USD 15,576, Size S2 small businesses with yearly revenues superior to USD 15,576 and inferior or equal to USD 69,230, and Size S3 small businesses with yearly revenues superior to USD 69,230 and inferior or equal to USD 923,076.
initially highlights sizes in relation to MEI, which is the smallest company size (S1). Microenterprises (S2) have 47% less chance of the event occurring, and EPPs that are larger (S3) have 75% less chance of the closure event occurring. Both are significant. This indicates a positive linear relationship between size and survival.
Articles related
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., & Rapetti, C. (2025). Multiple Hazards and Economic Resilience: Sectoral Impacts and Post-Disaster Recovery in a High-Risk Brazilian State. Sustainability, 17(17), 7711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177711
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Tax Evasion and Company Survival: A Brazilian Case Study. Economies, 12(11), 286. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12110286
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., & Rapetti, C. (2024). Economic Impact of Droughts in Southern Brazil, a Duration Analysis. Climate, 12(11), 186. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110186
Chapter related
Tonetto, J. L. (2025). A pequena empresa e o desenvolvimento econômico regional. In J. L. Tonetto (Ed.), Perspectivas para o desenvolvimento do Rio Grande do Sul: Da competitividade às finanças (pp. 44–80). Pimenta Cultural. https://doi.org/10.31560/pimentacultural/978-85-7221-496-4 (Portuguese)
Somente o Capitulo 2: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GG55TD5FmnvOBj8vxNr86LIl2aJAKbor/view?